7th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements Research Seminar
7th Joint Regional Financing
Arrangements Research Seminar
Public Debt Sustainability And Fiscal Challenges
In Times Of Tighter Financial Conditions
Date:
May 25th - 26th 2023
8:00 a.m. Bogotá / 3:00 p.m. Luxembourg / 9:00 p.m. Singapore
Organisers:
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
European Stability Mechanism
Latin American Reserve Fund
Format: Hybrid.
In person: Hyatt Regency Hotel, Cartagena de Indias Colombia.
Virtual: Zoom
7th Joint Regional Financing
Arrangements Research Seminar
Public Debt Sustainability And Fiscal Challenges In
Times Of Tighter Financial Conditions
Date:
May 25th - 26th 2023
8:00 a.m. Bogotá / 3:00 p.m. Luxembourg / 9:00 p.m. Singapore
Organisers:
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
European Stability Mechanism
Latin American Reserve Fund
Format: Hybrid.
In person: Hyatt Regency Hotel, Cartagena de Indias Colombia.
Virtual: Zoom
About
the seminar
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR) initiated this annual joint research seminar series in 2017. The event brings together scholars, policymakers, economists from central banks and finance ministries, as well as representatives from regional financing arrangements (RFAs), the IMF and other IFIs. It seeks to encourage discussion on issues related to RFA mandates, such as the effectiveness of providing liquidity during times of crises, early warning systems and sovereign risks, as well as on broader regional and global economic developments and challenges.
Over the past decade, public debt has risen significantly worldwide following adverse shocks – namely the global financial crisis and the pandemic – and against the backdrop of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies that enabled governments to borrow at a low cost. However, recent interest rates hikes, coupled with ongoing high inflation, pose new challenges to debt sustainability and fiscal policy. Moreover, continued weak growth by historical standards may make it more difficult in some cases to achieve fiscal consolidation and stabilization. Meanwhile, longer-term trends such as climate change and aging populations add further pressure on budgets, including due to higher investment needs, and can negatively affect growth. This underscores the need to have balance between tax revenues and public expenditures to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.
This seminar addresses debt sustainability and fiscal policy issues from three viewpoints. The first session will consist of a dialogue between officials from regional institutions with a prominent academic expert on the implications of inter alia higher interest rates and inflation for debt sustainability analysis. The second session will aim at obtaining a deeper understanding of debt and fiscal challenges and policy priorities going forward, globally and across different regions. The last session will examine how the international community and regional partners can help countries navigate such challenges and advance reforms that reduce debt vulnerabilities and make economies greener, more resilient, and inclusive.
Over the past decade, public debt has risen significantly worldwide following adverse shocks – namely the global financial crisis and the pandemic – and against the backdrop of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies that enabled governments to borrow at a low cost. However, recent interest rates hikes, coupled with ongoing high inflation, pose new challenges to debt sustainability and fiscal policy. Moreover, continued weak growth by historical standards may make it more difficult in some cases to achieve fiscal consolidation and stabilization. Meanwhile, longer-term trends such as climate change and aging populations add further pressure on budgets, including due to higher investment needs, and can negatively affect growth. This underscores the need to have balance between tax revenues and public expenditures to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.
This seminar addresses debt sustainability and fiscal policy issues from three viewpoints. The first session will consist of a dialogue between officials from regional institutions with a prominent academic expert on the implications of inter alia higher interest rates and inflation for debt sustainability analysis. The second session will aim at obtaining a deeper understanding of debt and fiscal challenges and policy priorities going forward, globally and across different regions. The last session will examine how the international community and regional partners can help countries navigate such challenges and advance reforms that reduce debt vulnerabilities and make economies greener, more resilient, and inclusive.
About the seminar
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR) initiated this annual joint research seminar series in 2017. The event brings together scholars, policymakers, economists from central banks and finance ministries, as well as representatives from regional financing arrangements (RFAs), the IMF and other IFIs. It seeks to encourage discussion on issues related to RFA mandates, such as the effectiveness of providing liquidity during times of crises, early warning systems and sovereign risks, as well as on broader regional and global economic developments and challenges.
Read more
Over the past decade, public debt has risen significantly worldwide following adverse shocks – namely the global financial crisis and the pandemic – and against the backdrop of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies that enabled governments to borrow at a low cost. However, recent interest rates hikes, coupled with ongoing high inflation, pose new challenges to debt sustainability and fiscal policy. Moreover, continued weak growth by historical standards may make it more difficult in some cases to achieve fiscal consolidation and stabilization. Meanwhile, longer-term trends such as climate change and aging populations add further pressure on budgets, including due to higher investment needs, and can negatively affect growth. This underscores the need to have balance between tax revenues and public expenditures to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.
This seminar addresses debt sustainability and fiscal policy issues from three viewpoints. The first session will consist of a dialogue between officials from regional institutions with a prominent academic expert on the implications of inter alia higher interest rates and inflation for debt sustainability analysis. The second session will aim at obtaining a deeper understanding of debt and fiscal challenges and policy priorities going forward, globally and across different regions. The last session will examine how the international community and regional partners can help countries navigate such challenges and advance reforms that reduce debt vulnerabilities and make economies greener, more resilient, and inclusive.
Agenda
* All times below refer to Cartagena time (GMT-5)
Day one
Thursday, 25 May 2023
8:00 a.m. Bogotá / 3:00 p.m. Luxembourg / 9:00 p.m. Singapore
Session I: Dialogue on Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in a High interest Rate and High Inflation Environment
Possible issues to consider include how to analyse debt sustainability in the current circumstances? How to analyse debt sustainability in developed vs developing and emerging economies? How to deal with the great uncertainty in economic projections?
8:00 a.m. – 8:05 a.m.
Welcome Opening Remarks
José Darío Uribe, Executive President, FLAR
8:05 a.m. – 9:50 a.m.
Chair: Carlos Giraldo, Chief Economist at FLAR
Keynote Speech (8:05 a.m. – 8:30 a.m.)
Ugo Panizza, Professor of Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute
Panel discussion (8:30 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.)
- Óscar Valencia, Lead Specialist, Fiscal and Municipal Management Division, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
- Giovanni Callegari, Head of the Economic Risk Analysis Division, ESM
- Byunghoon Nam, Senior Economist, AMRO
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks (9:30 a.m. – 9:50 a.m.)
9:50 a.m. – 10:10 a.m.
Coffee break
Session II: Policy Exchange on Debt and Fiscal Challenges and Priorities
Possible issues to consider include: What are the main policy implications of a high debt and high interest rate environment? How to incorporate climate change into the long-term fiscal policy outlook? Is there a new paradigm for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies? What are the main challenges for fiscal consolidation in the context of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis that many countries face? What are the main challenges for future fiscal consolidation?
10:10 a.m. – 11:55 a.m.
Chair: Marialena Athanasopoulou, Deputy Head of the Economic Risk Analysis Division, ESM
Keynote Speech (10:10 a.m. – 10:35 a.m.)
Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
Panel discussion (10:35 a.m. – 11:35 a.m.)
- Parjiono, Assistant to Minister of Finance for Macro Economy and International Finance, Ministry of Finance the Republic of Indonesia
- Maria del Carmen Bonilla Rodríguez, chief of public credit and international affairs, Finance Ministry of Mexico
- Chloé Bellec, Senior Policy Officer, European Commission
- Grégory Claeys, Senior Fellow, Bruegel
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks (11:35 a.m. – 11:55 a.m.)
Day two
Friday, 26 May 2023
8:00 a.m. Bogotá / 3:00 p.m. Luxembourg / 9:00 p.m. Singapore
Session III: The Role of the International Community and Regional Partners in Supporting Debt Sustainability and Management of Fiscal Challenges
Possible issues to consider include: How can multilateral and regional organizations contribute toward public debt sustainability? How can the global community help to increase debt level transparency to understand the actual magnitude of global debt risk? How can multilateral organizations contribute to better incorporate long-term trends such as climate change into the fiscal sustainability framework?
8:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.
Chair: Luke Hong, Lead Economist, AMRO
Keynote Speech (8:00 a.m. – 8:25 a.m.)
Richard Martínez, Vice President for Countries, IDB
Panel discussion (8:25 a.m. – 9:40 a.m.)
- Marialuz Moreno Badia, Deputy Division Chief Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF
- Adriana Arreaza, Director of Macroeconomic Studies, Latin American Development Bank (CAF)
- José Luis Bustamante, General Director of Macroeconomic Policy at the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Peru.
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks (9:40 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.)
10:00 a.m. – 10:05 a.m.
Closing remarks
Fidel Jaramillo, General Secretary, FLAR
Speakers
Richard Martínez
Vice President for Countries, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Parjiono
Assistant to Minister of Finance for Macro Economy and International Finance, Ministry of Finance the Republic of Indonesia
Maria del Carmen Bonilla Rodríguez
Chief of public credit and international affairs, Finance Ministry of Mexico
José Luis Bustamante
General Director of Macroeconomic Policy at the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Peru.
Chair Speakers
Contacts
If you require assistance, please contact fbuitrago@flar.net, and/or smarin@flar.net