This paper examines the transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to bank lending in 12 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2020. Using data from 118 banks, we find evidence of an international bank lending channel, even in countries with low direct exposure to U.S. banks.
In the past three months, Latin America has faced reduced external and domestic financing constraints, supported by lower interest rates driven by easing inflation in most countries. This context has enabled us to revise the region’s annual growth projection to 2.1% for 2024. However, inflation remains above target in several countries, and public debt continues to rise as a percentage of GDP, underscoring the need for greater fiscal consolidation efforts.
The 9th High-level Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) Dialogue was held on 23 October 2024 in Washington DC at a time when the global economic outlook is improving but remains weak amid a complex geoeconomic environment and elevated policy uncertainty. The heightened volatility observed in global financial markets over the summer rea rmed the importance of having a strong Global Financial Safety Net, including e ective collaboration between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and RFAs, to safeguard against external risks.
Working paper in academic journal Term Spread Spillovers to Latin America and Emergence of the ‘Twin Ds’ Carlos Giraldo, Iader Giraldo, Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jorge
The extractive sector holds great relevance for the macro-financial stability of Latin America. In most economies in the region, significant commercial and financial inflows originate from the extractive industry, and a portion of government income relies on the well-being of these companies, sourced either from the taxes paid by these entities or from the profits generated when the state owns a share of their assets.
This study examines the determinants of hedging practices among commodity-producing companies in Latin America, given the economic significance of the extractive sector in the region. Key factors identified include firm size, leverage, and commodity prices. Additionally, exchange rate exposure and the acquisition of US dollar-denominated debt influence hedging activities, along with access to international markets. Ownership type is also relevant, as state-owned firms, particularly in the oil sector, are more likely to hedge to reduce revenue volatility.
This study reexamines the effects of financial openness on banking stability using advanced machine learning techniques and a diverse set of indicators. Analyzing data from 45 countries between 2010 and 2020, it was found that greater financial openness improves financial stability.
In Latin America, the development of sovereign investment institutions, which can complement the work of finance ministries and central banks in managing state assets, has been somewhat slow. These institutions are key to ensuring macroeconomic stability, saving for future generations, and promoting strategic national development.
This paper investigates the relationship between depreciation and default risks in five key Latin American markets—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico—in response to shifts in the US yield curve slope. Excluding serial defaulters like Argentina, our focus lies on countries still susceptible to the Twin Ds phenomenon amidst high debt levels.
This study utilizes weekly datasets on loan growth in Colombia to develop a daily indicator of credit expansion using a two-step machine learning approach. Initially, employing Random Forests (RF), missing data in the raw credit indicator is filled using high frequency indicators like spreads, interest rates, and stock market returns.
This document delves into the dynamics of financial inclusion and the adoption of digital payment systems in Latin America, focusing on the role of financial education and positive beliefs about cash.
The objective of this working paper was to examine the effect of climate uncertainty shocks on the distribution of economic growth rates across Latin American and Caribbean countries from 1970 to 2022. It provides novel indicators for volatility, asymmetry, and kurtosis shocks based on daily temperature data at the country level.
This blog post goes through our recent research, which explores how shifts in the US term spread influence these twin risks—default and depreciation—in five key Latin American markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico.
To date, in 2024, the economy of Latin America has continued its macroeconomic adjustment process; the GDP growth is lower than that in 2023, which is accompanied by a decline in the current account deficit of the balance of payments and inflation
FLARblog | Climate Growth at Risk in the Global South: Evaluating the role of asymmetric effects in Latin America and the Caribbean In light of
Amundi launches Global Corporate SRI 1-5Y Highest Rated ETF with initial investment from the Latin American Reserve Fund
The 8th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) Research Seminar starts today May 16 in Luxembourg. The two-day hybrid seminar will examine the economic and financial risks associated with global fragmentation. This event is organised jointly by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR).