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This paper investigates the relationship between depreciation and default risks in five key Latin American markets—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico—in response to shifts in the US yield curve slope. Excluding serial defaulters like Argentina, our focus lies on countries still susceptible to the Twin Ds phenomenon amidst high debt levels.

This study utilizes weekly datasets on loan growth in Colombia to develop a daily indicator of credit expansion using a two-step machine learning approach. Initially, employing Random Forests (RF), missing data in the raw credit indicator is filled using high frequency indicators like spreads, interest rates, and stock market returns.

This document delves into the dynamics of financial inclusion and the adoption of digital payment systems in Latin America, focusing on the role of financial education and positive beliefs about cash.

The objective of this working paper was to examine the effect of climate uncertainty shocks on the distribution of economic growth rates across Latin American and Caribbean countries from 1970 to 2022. It provides novel indicators for volatility, asymmetry, and kurtosis shocks based on daily temperature data at the country level.

This blog post goes through our recent research, which explores how shifts in the US term spread influence these twin risks—default and depreciation—in five key Latin American markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico.

FLARblog | Climate Growth at Risk in the Global South: Evaluating the role of asymmetric effects in Latin America and the Caribbean In light of

Amundi launches Global Corporate SRI 1-5Y Highest Rated ETF with initial investment from the Latin American Reserve Fund

The 8th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) Research Seminar starts today May 16 in Luxembourg. The two-day hybrid seminar will examine the economic and financial risks associated with global fragmentation. This event is organised jointly by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR).

The financial health of oil-producing entities is closely tied to oil prices. Historical data shows that the profits of leading international oil corporations have fluctuated in correlation with global oil price volatility.

The objective of this working paper was to analyze the relationship between oil price volatility and economic growth, taking into account the unique characteristics of the region, including both oil-producing and net oil-importing countries, and comparing it with other regions of the world.

New working paper in academic journal | U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks and Bank Lending in Latin America: Evidence of an International Bank Lending Channel

This study utilizes weekly datasets on loan growth in Colombia to develop a daily indicator of credit expansion using a two-step machine learning approach.

Early warning systems represent a crucial asset for regulatory bodies and financial system overseers. While on-site monitoring stands out as a premier means through which authorities can glean both quantitative and qualitative insights into the fiscal well-being of the entities under scrutiny, the execution of such monitoring at a high frequency can incur substantial costs.

In 2023, the international context was characterized by lower economic growth than in the previous year in an environment of higher global interest rates. Consumer inflation remained above its target despite declines in most of the world’s economies.

The impact of integration on financial stability is a topic that has generated an extensive debate on its advantages and disadvantages. In our most recent study we revisit the debate on the effects of openness on financial stability.